AFC, NFC Championships: Same-game parlays to target

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Season-long insights. Get 25% off PFF+ with code DRAFT. All NFL Fantasy College NFL Draft DFS Betting - current AFC, NFC Championships: Same-game parlays to target By Judah Fortgang
Posted Jan 25, 2026 9:39 am EST Same-game parlays (SGPs) let you combine multiple bets from a single game into one ticket, increasing the potential payout if your game script hits. Our SGP picks are built around data-driven narratives — how a matchup is likely to unfold, which players are best positioned to benefit and where the edges lie.

This week, we’re also leaning on the new PFF Player Prop Tool, available exclusively for PFF+ members. It highlights the props with the highest probability of success, surfaces matchup insights that NFL teams themselves track and syncs with sportsbooks in real time, so you always know where the best number is.

Here are our top SGP picks for the divisional round, each tied to a clear story the data suggests could play out.

QB Jarrett Stidham operates efficiently within an excellent Broncos offense With Milton Williams and Robert Spillane back and healthy, this New England Patriots defense is again built to funnel opposing offenses toward the pass behind one of the strongest run defenses in the NFL. Over the first half of the season, when both were available, New England ranked in the top five in rush EPA allowed and success rate allowed. When both were sidelined over the back half of the season, the unit fell into the bottom five in those same metrics.

That dominance has returned in the playoffs. With Williams and Spillane back in the lineup, the Patriots have held Kimani Vidal and Woody Marks well below 3.0 yards per carry, looking much like the elite run defense from the season’s opening months.

That profile should force the Denver Broncos to lean even more heavily into the pass, something the Broncos already do at a top-five rate in pass over expectation. Even so, this Patriots defense finished the season ranked 15th in dropback success rate allowed, 11th in yards per dropback and 10th in EPA per play despite facing nearly 60% of its snaps against backup quarterbacks. When adjusted for opponent quality, the unit graded closer to league average.

There is limited data on Jarrett Stidham, but enough context here to begin identifying potential areas of value.

Let’s start with the baseline numbers. Stidham has been capable of generating yardage — an important factor for yardage-based bets — while grading slightly below league average by PFF standards. He is not a long-term starter, but he has shown the ability to move the ball and operate at a serviceable level.

Where Stidham has been most effective is when his protection holds up. When kept clean, he has shown the ability to execute efficiently and win within structure.

Over the course of his career, Stidham has faced a lower-than-average rate of perfectly blocked dropbacks, but his efficiency spikes when protection holds up. In those situations, he has performed well above league average — even surpassing Bo Nix.

That makes this transition particularly notable: No quarterback has benefited from more perfect blocks than Nix this season, and Denver leads the NFL in perfect block rate. With strong offensive line play in front of him, this sets up an opportunity to see Stidham at his best.

From a betting perspective, these markets hinge on the relationship between Stidham exceeding expectations and Denver outperforming the spread. Given the expected passing volume and a matchup against an elite run defense, success through the air would signal the Broncos generating offensive value relative to market expectations.

In that game script — with Denver moving the ball effectively and its defense limiting Drake Maye — opportunities also emerge for Maye to scramble on dropbacks against a Broncos defense that leans heavily on man coverage. That dynamic fits cleanly into a scenario where Denver builds a lead, drives offense through the pass and creates correlated value across the board.

SGP Builds Build 1: 16-1

QB Jarrett Stidham, Denver Broncos: 280+ passing yards Denver Broncos: Moneyline (16-1)  Build 2: 130-1

QB Jarrett Stidham, Denver Broncos: 280+ passing yards QB Jarrett Stidham, Denver Broncos: 33+ attempts Denver Broncos: -3.5 QB Drake Maye, New England Patriots: 40+ rushing yards WR Jordan Whittington breaks out from the slot against the Seahawks defense Over the back half of the season, the Rams have shifted from heavy 12-personnel usage to a more 11-personnel-driven offense, with three-receiver sets now serving as their most common formation.

One of the primary beneficiaries of that shift has been Jordan Whittington, who has emerged as the clear No. 3 wide receiver and has played 22 more snaps than Xavier Smith.

Whittington has consistently created separation for the Rams, even if that has not fully translated into production yet, as evidenced by his modest 1.02 yards per route run. He operates as a hybrid tight end–wide receiver, running the majority of his routes from the slot and working primarily underneath with an average depth of target of 6.5 yards.

That role could become increasingly important against a Seahawks defense that has allowed the fewest total receiving yards to wide receivers overall but has been more vulnerable from the slot, surrendering the fifth-most targets and 10th-most yards to slot receivers.

While Puka Nacua remains capable of beating any coverage and will continue to command targets, the Rams’ increased reliance on 11 personnel should keep Whittington on the field far more than earlier in the season, setting up a favorable spot for a potential usage spike.

If Whittington delivers in this matchup, it is more likely to come through steady volume rather than explosive plays.

SGP Build WR Jordan Whittington, Los Angeles Rams: 60+ receiving yards WR Jordan Whittington, Los Angeles Rams: 4+ receptions WR Jordan Whittington, Los Angeles Rams: Anytime touchdown Read More Stories Explore PFF Tools 3 min read Quick Read PFF’s First Touchdown Finder Report uses early-game efficiency, usage trends and red zone data to identify first touchdown scorer value — all in one customizable betting tool. Introducing PFF’s First Touchdown Finder: A smarter way to attack first TD scorer markets By PFF.com 4 min read Quick Read The First Touchdown Finder is built similarly to the PFF Player Props tool, allowing users to filter by game, position, price, and more, while highlighting team-level early-scor… Best first touchdown bets for the AFC and NFC championship games By Mason Cameron 13 min read Quick Read Ben Linsey provides data-driven, contextual betting notes for both sides of the ball for each conference championship game. NFL Conference Championship Betting Notebook By Ben Linsey 11 min read Quick Read Patriots wide receiver Stefon Diggs thrives against man coverage, which the Broncos use at a top-10 rate in the NFL. NFL Playoffs AFC Championship: Patriots-Broncos betting preview (odds, lines, best bets) By Mason Cameron 12 min read Quick Read The Seahawks tend to funnel targets to running backs and tight ends, giving Colby Parkinson a window to produce in this third iteration of Rams-Seahawks. NFL Playoffs NFC Championship: Rams-Seahawks betting preview (odds, lines, best bets) By Mason Cameron 1 min read Quick Read Anytime touchdown bets are among the most popular markets in football, but they are often driven more by guesswork than data. PFF’s new First Touchdown Finder is designed to cha… AFC, NFC Championship Picks: Anytime touchdown bets By Judah Fortgang 4 min read Quick Read Jarrett Stidham steps into a Denver offense that leads the NFL in perfect block rate, a key factor given his history of outperforming expectations when protected in a pass-heavy… AFC, NFC Championships: Same-game parlays to target By Judah Fortgang Try the tool Mock Draft Simulator Make picks, trade up, and run your own draft in minutes. Build your board Big Board Builder Create custom rankings with Scouting Mode at the core. More Coverage Mock Draft Simulator Be the GM for any team in the 2026 NFL Draft with a fully immersive simulation that lets you trade picks and players for a realistic, in-depth draft experience. 2026 NFL Draft Big Board Trevor Sikkema’s personal rankings, complete with three-year player grades, position rankings and in-depth scouting reports for the top prospects in the class. Big Board Builder Create your own customized draft rankings, with Scouting Mode at its core — a fully customizable grading system that puts the entire evaluation process in your hands. NCAA Premium Stats Our exclusive database, featuring the most in-depth collection of NCAA player performance data. Read More PFF Betting News & Analysis Share Betting Featured Tools First TD Finder (New!) PFF Player Prop Tool (New!) PFF Bankroll Tracker PFF Betting Calculators NFL Power Rankings

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